In my October 1996 editorial, I made several predictions for 1997. Have my predictions stood the test of time, or should I be stoned as a false prophet? I'll score myself prediction by prediction on a scale of 1 (stone-worthy) to 5 (excellent).
Predictions and Scores
Microsoft Cluster Server (Wolfpack) has the potential to increase the
market for clusters tenfold. Although Wolfpack got mind share, it has only
recently shipped as part of Windows NT Server, Enterprise Edition (NTS/E) and
has not significantly increased the market for clustersyet. Microsoft
positions NTS/E as a high-end solution, ignoring the potential in the small to
midsized market. This positioning may keep the number of cluster-aware
applications low, which will cause the market for clusters to grow more slowly
than I predicted. Score: 2.
The "Designed for Windows NT and Windows 95" Logo will force
Windows 95 vendors to support NT Workstation. The key to that prediction was
Microsoft retiring the "Designed for Windows 95" logo in January 1997.
Bowing to pressure, Microsoft has revised its plan, and the logo isn't scheduled
for retirement until January 1998. So next month, we'll see a new "Designed
for Windows NT 5.0 and Windows 98" logo. Despite the lackluster logo, the
number of NT Workstation applications increased significantly in 1997. Score: 2.
Pentium Pro systems will replace Pentiums and come bundled with NT
Workstation, increasing NT Workstation's market share. Actually, the Pentium
II replaced Pentiums, but most Pentium IIs shipped with Windows 95.
Nevertheless, NT Workstation shipments tripled, to about 3 million.
According to International Data Corporation, NT Workstation continues to
show interesting growth, with shipments increasing 177 percent annually. In
addition, in the past 6 months, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have
more than doubled the number of machines on which they preinstall NT
Workstation. Score: 3.
RISC vendors will speed up the development of Intel's 64-bit chip and
will fuel the development of a 64-bit version of NT. Although the PowerPC
running NT turned out to be a dud, the Alpha, the only RISC system left for NT,
is gaining momentum. The 64-bit version of NT 5.0 (beta) shipped in September
1997 for Alpha-based computers. Alpha now owns the 64-bit NT market. The
pressure is on Intel to deliver a 64-bit chip for NT. Score: 5.
If NT's new directory is as good as NetWare's NDS, NT Server will put a
serious dent in NetWare sales. The NT 5.0 Active Directory (AD) will be good
enough to compete with NDS, and even though AD hasn't shipped, it has already
held back NetWare's market potential. NDS for NT and Banyan System's StreetTalk
for NT are unlikely to have any impact on the rollout of AD. NT customers will
very probably use NT 5.0's native (and free) AD system. Score: 5.
We will see a substantial increase in business-critical applications for
NT Server and an increase in NT Workstation applications. In 1997, Microsoft
formed the Application Developer Customer Unit (ADCU), which hired hundreds of
technical evangelists to spread the gospel of building business-critical
applications on top of NT and BackOffice. Windows NT Magazine's
Solutions Directory (http://www.winntsolutions.com) contains more than a
thousand of these applications, and the number is growing at a rate of more than
200 applications per month. Score: 4.
Microsoft BackOffice will force competitors to tightly integrate their
back office-type applications with NT Server. IBM Software Servers, Oracle
InterOffice, and NetScape SuiteSpot are examples of the type of integration I
was referring to. The key to this battle for the back office market is the
number of business-critical applications that will be available on these
platforms in 2 years. Whatever company has the most NT applications based on its
platform wins. Right now, the race is between SQL Server- and Oracle-based
applications. Score: 5.
Time to Stone the Prophet?
OK, my predictions were not perfect. In several cases, I predicted the
result, but the way it happened was not predictable. One thing is for sure: 1997
was an incredible year for NT. I am eager to see the changes we'll be looking
back on a year from now.